Ken Kaye, THE SUN SENTINEL| March 20, 2015
It’s still way too early to say whether we’ll see a busy, average or slow hurricane season. But some atmospheric signals already indicate it may be another quiet year.
Mainly, portions of the Atlantic are cool – at least for now.
And El Niño, the atmospheric pattern that knocks down tropical storms, has emerged. Although some climatologists expect this El Niño to remain weak, others say it may grow stronger.
I learned all this after spending some time at the National Hurricane Center this week.
If it is another slow year, that reduces the odds of a hurricane striking the U.S. coastline. Potentially, Florida may avoid a hurricane hit for a record 10th season.
That would be astonishing, considering that historically this is by far the most storm battered state in the nation.
But two things to keep in mind:
First, atmospheric conditions can change a lot between now and the heart of the hurricane season in August.
Second, no matter how many storms form, what really matters if just one hits your area.
We’ll have a better feel for how active the season will be when the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration releases its seasonal outlook in late May.