With NOAA National Weather Service forecasters predicting an above-average 2024 hurricane season, including 4 to 7 major hurricanes, people who live in the path of storms will need information they can trust. But a new national survey found that a majority of Americans believe that news outlets, meteorologists, government agencies, and political leaders exaggerate the severity of storm threats.
That’s a problem if survival depends on taking warnings seriously while there’s still time to act.
The survey by the National Hurricane Survival Initiative found that 54% of Americans believe government agencies and political leaders exaggerate storm threats, and 51% believe news outlets and meteorologists exaggerate the threat. Men are particularly skeptical of media reports, with 61% expressing doubts. Surprisingly, 65% of those who have been personally impacted by a hurricane believed severity claims are exaggerated by all sources.
NOAA recently released a 2024 forecast with 70% confidence predicting 17 to 25 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 8 to 13 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher) – including 4 to 7 major hurricanes (category 3, 4, or 5, with winds of 111 mph or higher).
Predictions for a hyper-active 2024 Atlantic hurricane season are due to a confluence of factors, including “near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, development of La Nina conditions in the Pacific, reduced Atlantic trade winds, and less wind shear, all of which tend to favor tropical storm formation,” NOAA says.
Despite generally low public confidence in information sources, 80% said they would comply if they received an evacuation order, with 48% saying they would be very likely to do so. The portion was lower among younger Americans ages 18-44, with 76% saying they would are likely to comply with an evacuation order and 38% saying they are very likely.