National Hurricane Survival Initiative

Saving Lives & Minimizing Damage -- Is your community prepared?

Hurricane Michael is forecast to strengthen and make landfall in Florida as a ‘dangerous’ Category 3 Wednesday

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Hurricane Michael is strengthening as it enters the Gulf of Mexico, and is aimed at Florida. The storm is expected to become a Category 3 hurricane by the time it reaches Florida’s Gulf Coast on Wednesday. It will probably be the area’s strongest hurricane in at least 13 years.

Both Florida’s Panhandle, from Pensacola to Apalachicola, and its Big Bend area are the zones of greatest concern. This area faces the possibility of coastal inundation from rising ocean waters, flooding rain and destructive winds starting Tuesday night and continuing through Wednesday.

“#Michael could be one of the worst hurricanes to ever strike the Florida Big Bend and Florida Panhandle region,” tweeted Rick Knabb, the Weather Channel’s hurricane expert. “We only have today and Tuesday to complete life-saving preparations.”

The National Hurricane Center warned of a “life-threatening storm surge,” which is the rise in ocean water above normally dry land. It could reach at least 8 to 12 feet in hardest hit areas, inundating roads, homes and businesses. Mandatory evacuations were ordered in parts of Florida’s Gulf County, which is between Panama City and Apalachicola.

Serious hurricane effects will not be restricted to coastal areas and may extend farther inland, potentially affecting the Tallahassee area.

The last major hurricane, Category 3 or higher, to strike the Florida Panhandle was Opal in 1995.

Florida Gov. Rick Scott (R) declared a state of emergency for 26 counties in Florida’s Panhandle and Big Bend areas. “Families should take the opportunity TODAY to make sure they have three days of food and water, as well as all needed medications,” he tweeted. “EVERY FAMILY must be prepared. We can rebuild your home, but we cannot rebuild your life.”

After making landfall on Wednesday, Michael’s effects are expected to surge northward. “[H]eavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash flooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into portions of the Carolinas through Thursday,” including some of the same areas flooded by Hurricane Florence, the National Hurricane Center warned.

While destructive hurricane-force winds were forecast to be confined mostly to Florida, damaging tropical-storm-force winds were predicted to affect a much larger area, potentially expanding north into the Carolinas.

The latest

As of 2 p.m. Eastern, Michael’s peak winds were at hurricane strength, sustained at 75 mph, as it moved north at 7 mph. It was centered just 20 miles from the western tip of Cuba, which was getting lashed by heavy rain and strong winds.

The storm, the seventh Atlantic hurricane of 2018, was starting to form an eye Monday morning. Traveling over very warm waters, with light upper-level winds, it could rapidly intensify over the next 24 to 36 hours, the National Hurricane Center said.

At its current rate of speed, tropical-storm-force winds should reach the northern Gulf Coast as early as Tuesday evening, after which conditions will steadily deteriorate. Landfall is projected during Wednesday — although models differ on whether it will occur early in the day or late in the day.

Hurricane watches have been posted from the Alabama/Florida border to the Suwannee River, which is just northwest of Cedar Key on Florida’s west coast. Tropical storm watches extend farther south through the Tampa Bay area to Anna Maria Island, Fla., and, to the west, along the Alabama coast.

Storm surge watches are in effect from Navarre, Fla., which is east of Pensacola, to Anna Maria Island, including Tampa Bay.

Storm surge

Michael is projected to strike an area that is exceptionally prone to storm surge because of the adjacent shallow shelf water and the concave shape of the coast. Like a bulldozer, the storm will be able push a vast amount of ocean water inland, potentially inundating homes, roads and businesses on the coast.

Areas to the east of where the storm center tracks will experience the greatest storm surge, and flooding will be worst around the high tides. High tides are extra high this week because of the new moon Tuesday.

Storm surges just east of where the center makes landfall could reach 8 to 12 feet, if the storm comes ashore around high tide. Here are specific initial storm surge projections from the Hurricane Center:

  • Indian Pass to Crystal River: 8-12 feet
  • Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass: 5-8 feet
  • Crystal River to Anclote River: 4-6 feet
  • Anclote River to Anna Maria Island including Tampa Bay: 2-4 feet
  • Navarre to Okaloosa/Walton County Line: 2-4 feet

Weather Underground’s Jeff Masters and Bob Henson projected the surge could even reach 19 feet in a worst-case scenario. “There are very shallow waters along the coast where Michael is expected to make landfall, where the continental shelf extends out about 70-90 miles from shore,” they wrote. “The winds from the storm will thus be able to pile up a large storm surge along the east side of the storm’s center.”

Rainfall

The National Hurricane Center projects widespread rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend areas north into the Carolinas, with isolated amounts of up to a foot. “This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods,” it said.

Flooding rainfall is likely to affect some of the areas recovering from Hurricane Florence.

Heavy rain could first arrive in Florida on Tuesday night and in south Alabama and south Georgia early Wednesday. By Wednesday night and into Thursday, heavy rain will rapidly streak north through north Georgia and into the Carolinas.

The rain is expected to reach the Mid-Atlantic, including Virginia, Maryland and Washington on Thursday before rapidly exiting by Friday. Depending on the track of Michael’s remnants, southern New England could also see a period of heavy rain late Thursday.

The potential rainfall in the Mid-Atlantic and New England ranges from 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts. As these areas have seen heavy rain in recent weeks, flooding may become a concern here as well.

Wind

Michael’s maximum sustained winds are forecast to be around 120 mph when it strikes the coast. Winds this strong will be confined to the ring around its calm eye, known as the eyewall, and “devastating” wind damage could occur in this narrow zone. “Well-built framed homes may incur major damage or removal of roof decking and gable ends,” the National Hurricane Center said. “Many trees will be snapped or uprooted, blocking numerous roads. Electricity and water will be unavailable for several days to weeks after the storm passes.”

After the storm strikes land, this eyewall will quickly collapse and winds will weaken.

While hurricane-force winds of over 74 mph will be confined to a relatively small area, tropical-storm winds of 39 to 73 mph will occur over a much larger zone and could potentially result in minor structural damage and many downed trees and power outages.

Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic

Tropical Storm Leslie — which formed Sept. 23 — is still active and probably will be through the weekend. It is forecast to become a hurricane, again, as it heads toward the Azores by the end of the week. And for being around for 16 days, it is presently centered just 115 miles from where it was when it formed.

Finally, a potent weather disturbance that recently left the coast of Africa is located near the Cabo Verde Islands and has a shot at becoming at least a tropical depression this week, if not a tropical storm, before conditions become more hostile by the weekend. The National Hurricane Center is giving it a 50 percent chance of reaching tropical depression status this week, but no models suggest this will become a threat to land. The next name on the list is Nadine.

Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2018/10/08/michael-strengthens-hurricane-is-forecast-make-landfall-florida-dangerous-category-midweek/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.097aceecc16c

Don’t Go Into Another Hurricane Season Without This Important Business Tool

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Speed of recovery means everything for businesses. You don’t want to wait days or weeks after a hurricane to reopen, because that’s lost income. What’s more, many businesses see a surge in demand after a hurricane, so they absolutely have to stay open or at least minimize downtime.

That’s why Assured Risk Cover created StormPeace for businesses. It’s designed to give business owners the cash infusion they need immediately after a hurricane so they can get back on their feet quickly.

Business interruption coverage is becoming increasingly popular, yet it has its limitations. Most commercial insurance policies require proof of physical damage before they will pay for business interruption. StormPeace, however, offers business interruption coverage with or without physical damage, because often all it takes is a power outage or evacuation order to force a business to close its doors.

Florida businesses are preparing for this hurricane with StormPeace – because the faster they recover, the sooner their customers and the local economy benefit. They can apply the funds toward a wide variety of expenses, including:

  • Temporary location rental
  • Transportation
  • Debris cleanup
  • New equipment
  • Business income loss or payroll expenses
  • Repairs

Like the StormPeace residential policy, applying for business coverage is simple. Just provide your business name and address and choose a policy limit, up to $60,000 and lower than your hurricane deductible, if you have one. There’s a simple, painless claims process and you’ll receive your payment within hours of the hurricane. The amount you receive is calculated based on the strength of the storm and its distance from your business location. It doesn’t matter how the loss was caused (e.g. by wind, flying debris, water, rain, storm surge, or mold from water), so long as the triggers are met.

According to FEMA, 40% of small businesses never reopen after a disaster, and another 25% that do reopen fail within a year. A small business can be extremely vulnerable to a major weather event, and it represents years of sweat equity and investment. The stakes are too high to leave anything to chance.

Get started at www.stormpeace.com today!

Miami grand jury examines Hurricane Irma and has a suggestion: better evacuation

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Just as the hurricane season rounds the bend into what’s typically peak time for fierce storms, a Miami-Dade County grand jury has issued a report assessing the region’s response to Irma, one of the most powerful hurricanes on record, with a short list of recommendations.

While the report released Thursday avoided assigning blame, grand jurors decided some things could have been done better, from improving evacuations to helping the elderly.

After the largest evacuation order in state history, which included 600,000 Miami-Dade County residents, highways slowed to a crawl as traffic piled up. Travel time to Orlando, normally a four-hour journey, doubled to eight hours, jurors said. Motorists ran out of gas and with no power, rest stations shut down.

“The South Florida traffic snafu became one of the first major crises that would be revealed in advance of Hurricane Irma’s arrival,” the grand jury said.

To help solve the problem, jurors said the state should consider reversing southbound traffic flow on Florida’s Turnpike and ensure gas stations have enough fuel. They also argued that emergency officials can do a better job communicating which people should evacuate.

“People should run from water, but hide from wind,” they said.

State transportation officials have said they did not reverse traffic because they needed to send emergency workers and supplies south, where the storm was expected to have its greatest impact. In February, Gov. Rick Scott ordered fixes including opening road shoulders to traffic and widening the turnpike. Keeping gas stations — which the state required to install generators after Hurricane Wilma in 2005 — supplied with fuel is do-able but is not something governments alone can ensure, said Miami-Dade’s newly appointed emergency operations chief, Frank Rollason.

“You need the roads open, the escorts, the fuel to be on hand at Port Everglades,” he said. “So we’ll take care of those issues and then the shipping industry will divert the ships away from ports.”

In Miami- Dade County, jurors urged the county to do a better job working with churches and volunteer groups to provide water, ice and other services, something the county is already doing.

““They’ve got a lot to contribute. It’s just disjointed at the present time and we recognized that before this report,” said Rollason, who met with groups last month.

Jurors also urged other governments to copy Miami-Dade County plans to take over operating shelters after staffing came up short during Irma. They also praised a county move to improve conditions for the elderly in public housing by requiring developers to make complexes more storm-ready and urged other governments to do the same.

After Irma knocked out power to a Broward County nursing home leaving residents in sweltering heat, 12 died. The state passed a law requiring nursing homes and assisted living facilities to have a plan to move residents or have generators. In Miami-Dade, developers must also outfit public housing projects with community rooms powered by generators and equipped with kitchens. Developments must also hire or pay a trained resident to oversee assistance after a storm.

Jurors also suggested the county begin distributing color-coded door hangers to signal distress. Rollason said the hangers are already used in neighborhoods with enough volunteers to help manage it.

Source: https://www.miamiherald.com/latest-news/article215924995.html

Tropical Storm Chris to Become a Hurricane Well Off Carolina Coast; High Surf, Dangerous Rip Currents From North Carolina to Maine

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Chris will remain stalled off the North Carolina coastline into Tuesday.

Another expanding heat dome of high pressure aloft building into the Midwest and East is responsible for pinning Chris off the North Carolina coast early this week. By midweek, a southward dip in the jet stream moving into the northeastern states should help usher Chris farther out to sea.

Additional intensification is likely, and Chris could become a hurricane by early Tuesday.

Although Chris is likely to remain offshore of the U.S. East Coast, it will still bring impacts for beachgoers.

High surf and dangerous rip currents are expected to spread from parts of the North Carolina coast up the mid-Atlantic and New England seaboards Wednesday into Thursday.

Gusty winds are also expected due to a pressure gradient between Chris and an area of high pressure over the Northeast. However, the core of Chris’ strongest winds will remain well off the East Coast.

Some outer rain showers may brush the North Carolina coast, primarily the Outer Banks, through Tuesday night, but the majority of rain from Chris should remain offshore.

Chris may eventually impact parts of Nova Scotia Thursday and Newfoundland, Canada, Friday, while transitioning into a strong non-tropical area of low pressure late this week.

History of the Name ‘Chris’

This is the first tropical cyclone with the name of “Chris” to form in July.

The most recent Chris was Hurricane Chris in 2012, which was an unusual storm in that it was only the second hurricane to form in June as far north as it did – 41 degrees latitude.

The name Chris was also used four times for storms that developed in August, in 2006, 2000, 1994 and 1988.

In 2006, Tropical Storm Chris brought heavy rainfall to the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispañiola, and in 1988, Tropical Storm Chris made landfall near Savannah, Georgia, after impacting the northeastern Caribbean.

In 1982, Tropical Storm Chris developed in the Gulf of Mexico in September and brought flooding as far north as Tennessee and Kentucky.

Chris was also used once in the western Pacific, in August 1948, for a tropical cyclone that did not make landfall.

The name Chris was also used for three storms near Australia in 1982, 1991 and 2002. Cyclone Chris in 2002 rapidly intensified and made landfall east-northeast of Port Hedland in western Australia. Significant damage was reported in some areas, with extensive cattle loss and windmill damage.

Source: https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2018-07-08-tropical-storm-hurricane-chris-atlantic-rip-currents-high-surf

Financing to help Florida’s SNFs meet power requirements

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Revered for its year-round warm temperatures and relaxing lifestyle, Florida is home to the largest population of aging and elderly Americans who retire to the Sunshine State. However, Florida is also known for its disruptive weather, especially during the summer months that often bring with them devastating hurricanes and record-breaking heat waves.
2017’s hurricane season was particularly destructive in Florida. Hurricane Irma cost the state billions and took more than 70 lives. Among the victims were 12 residents of a Hollywood, Florida nursing home, who died after the facility lost power in the days following Irma’s wrath.

In response to this tragic event, a new mandate from Gov. Rick Scott requires all senior living facilities to install power generators, and to have enough fuel supply to run the generators for 72 hours. Nursing homes and assisted living facilities have until July 1 to comply. Although thousands are already in compliance, many are without the financial resources required to make these expensive system upgrades.

There is a widely available, but lesser known, program that can help. Commercial Property Assessed Clean Energy Financing (C-PACE) is a program that provides business owners with funding for improvement projects such as the installation of impact-resistant windows and doors, roofing, HVAC and solar panels.

Through a voluntary assessment on their property tax bill, property owners pay for the improvement projects over time. C-PACE loans are tied to the property itself and not the property owner, offering a rare chance for property owners to overcome common barriers of the upfront costs.

Ygrene is one of the nation’s leading providers of C-PACE. Our program is currently available in more than 150 cities and counties in Florida; however, most property owners do not know that C-PACE is an option for them. In fact, a recent survey commissioned by the National Hurricane Survival Initiative revealed that less than 8% of Floridians are aware of the program.

It’s important that nursing homes and assisted living facilities in Florida know that they are eligible for the C-PACE program, as they all share the same goal of ensuring residents are kept safe and cared for during disasters. C-PACE providers like Ygrene can help nursing homes meet the governor’s new mandate for backup power supply, but beyond that, C-PACE is a practical option for affording other projects that will improve facility conditions for the seniors in their care.

With the official start to Florida’s hurricane season having begun on June 1, and the deadline for complying with the new state mandate just around the corner, facility upgrades for nursing homes should be a top priority.

As we all know, when the stifling heat and punishing storms hit Florida this summer, our seniors are among the most vulnerable. They’ve taken care of us, now it’s time to take care of them.

Kate Wesner is the Senior Director of Government Affairs at Ygrene, national leader in residential and commercial energy efficiency and resiliency project financing.